Why forecasting isn’t enough in pharma supply planning
Pharma supply chains are hard to manage. Lead times are long. Regulations are strict. Stockouts put patients at risk, and excess inventory means wasted product and money. Even with years of data and advanced models, one thing never changes: the forecast is always wrong.
That’s why smart planning isn’t about being perfectly accurate. It’s about being ready when things don’t go as expected.
Build in flexibility. Some drugs move fast and need consistent safety stock. Others are expensive and slow-moving, so they require tight controls and constant review. Products with short shelf lives need even more attention. Every product type needs its own strategy — and all of them need to plan for expiry, not just quantity.
Don’t aim for precision — aim for agility. The best planners use multiple suppliers, postpone final packaging until demand is confirmed, and shift inventory across regions. These moves keep the supply chain responsive when plans change — which they almost always do.
Plan for multiple futures. Don’t rely on a single demand guess. Think through best-case, worst-case, and middle-ground scenarios. Be ready to act fast if the market shifts, approvals are delayed, or a supplier can’t deliver.
Collaborate early. Planning can’t happen in isolation. Work closely with finance, regulatory, and commercial teams. When everyone is aligned, the company avoids costly surprises later.
Bottom line: the forecast will be wrong. What matters is how well you plan for that.
Pharma supply chains are hard to manage. Lead times are long. Regulations are strict. Stockouts put patients at risk, and excess inventory means wasted product and money. Even with years of data and advanced models, one thing never changes: the forecast is always wrong.
That’s why smart planning isn’t about being perfectly accurate. It’s about being ready when things don’t go as expected.
Build in flexibility. Some drugs move fast and need consistent safety stock. Others are expensive and slow-moving, so they require tight controls and constant review. Products with short shelf lives need even more attention. Every product type needs its own strategy — and all of them need to plan for expiry, not just quantity.
Don’t aim for precision — aim for agility. The best planners use multiple suppliers, postpone final packaging until demand is confirmed, and shift inventory across regions. These moves keep the supply chain responsive when plans change — which they almost always do.
Plan for multiple futures. Don’t rely on a single demand guess. Think through best-case, worst-case, and middle-ground scenarios. Be ready to act fast if the market shifts, approvals are delayed, or a supplier can’t deliver.
Collaborate early. Planning can’t happen in isolation. Work closely with finance, regulatory, and commercial teams. When everyone is aligned, the company avoids costly surprises later.
Bottom line: the forecast will be wrong. What matters is how well you plan for that.
